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  • Soo Yon Ryu

Regression toward the Mean & Spiral Staircase.

์•…ํ•„๋กœ ๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ ์–ด๋‚ด๋ฆฐ ๊ฐ•์˜ ํ•„๊ธฐ.

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๊ต์ˆ˜๋‹˜๊ป˜์„œ ์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ 'ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์„ฑ'์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์— ๋ฐ˜ํ•˜๋Š” ์ด๋ก ๋“ค์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด์„œ 'ํ‰๊ท  ํšŒ๊ท€ ์ด๋ก '์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋ง์”€ํ•˜์…จ์–ด์š”. ์ด ์ด๋ก ์€ ๋ณ€๋™์ด ๋งŽ์€ ์ฃผ์‹ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋“ฑ์—์„œ ์ฃผ๋กœ ์ ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฐœ๋…์œผ๋กœ, ๊ด€์ธก์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์•„์งˆ์ˆ˜๋ก ํ‰๊ท ์œผ๋กœ ํšŒ๊ท€ํ•˜๋Š” ์„ฑํ–ฅ์„ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋‚ด์šฉ์ด์—์š”. ๊ต์ˆ˜๋‹˜๊ป˜์„œ๋Š” ์ด ์ด๋ก ์„ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉฐ, '๋žœ๋คํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์›€์ง์ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์กฐ๊ฐ๋‚ด์„œ ์ธ๊ณผ๊ด€๊ณ„๋กœ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๋ฉด ์•ˆ๋œ๋‹ค'๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ง์”€ํ•˜์…จ์–ด์š”. ๊ธธ๊ฒŒ, ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ๋งŽ์€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ๋ณด๋ฉด ํ‰๊ท ์œผ๋กœ ํšŒ๊ท€ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋‹น์žฅ์˜ ๊ธฐ์šธ๊ธฐ๋งŒ ๋ณด๋ฉฐ ๋‹จํŽธ์ ์ธ ํ‰๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๊ณค ํ•œ๋Œ€์š”.

๊ทธ ๋ง์„ ๋“ฃ๋Š” ์ˆœ๊ฐ„, ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์‚ด์•„์™”๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊นจ๋‹ฌ์•˜์–ด์š”. ์ฃผ์‹๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์™ธ๋ถ€์˜ ์˜์—ญ์—์„œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์ œ ์‚ถ์„ ํ˜•์„ฑํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์—์„œ ๋ง์ด์—์š”! ๋Œ์ด์ผœ๋ณด๋‹ˆ, ์ €๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ข‹์€ ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ์ €์˜ ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ ์‚ผ๊ณ , ๊ทธ์— ๋ฏธ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์—๋Š” ์ขŒ์ ˆ๊ฐ, ํŒจ๋ฐฐ๊ฐ, ์ž๊ดด๊ฐ์„ ๋Š๊ผˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์•„์š”. ์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ €์˜ ํ‰๊ท ์€ ๊ทธ ์‚ฌ์ด ์–ด๋”˜๊ฐ€์— ์žˆ์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ๋ง์ด์—์š”. ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ข‹์€ ์„ฑ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ƒˆ์„ ๋•Œ๋Š” ์ €์˜ ์ˆœ์ˆ˜ํ•œ ์‹ค๋ ฅ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๊ธฐ๋ฉฐ, ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์— ๋ฏธ์น˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋ฉด '๋œ ๋…ธ๋ ฅํ–ˆ๋‹ค'๋กœ ์Šค์Šค๋กœ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋‚ ์”ฌํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ ๋Š˜ ๋ฌด๋ฆฌํ•œ ๋‹ค์ด์–ดํŠธ๋ฅผ ๋„์ „(ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹คํŒจ)ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ์š”. ๋ˆˆ์ด ๋”ฑ ๋– ์ง€๋Š” ๊ธฐ๋ถ„์ด ๋“ค์—ˆ์–ด์š”.

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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ด ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„์—์„œ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฒ”ํ•ด์˜จ ์‹ค์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊นจ๋‹ซ๊ณ , ๋ฐ”๋žŒ์งํ•œ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์ด ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ฏผํ•ด๋ณด์•˜์–ด์š”. ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ํ‰๊ท ์„ ์ธ์ง€ํ•˜๋˜, ๊ทธ ํ‰๊ท ์„ ์กฐ๊ธˆ์”ฉ ๋†’์—ฌ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋‚˜๋ฆ„์˜ ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์„ ๋‚ด๋ ค๋ณด์•˜์–ด์š”. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•„๋งˆ, ์ €๋Š” ์•Œ๊ฒŒ ๋ชจ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์‚ด์•„์™”๋˜ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์•„์š”. ์•ž์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ํ‰๊ท  ๋ฏธ๋งŒ์˜ ์ƒํƒœ๋„ ๊ฒธํ—ˆํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ํ…Œ๋‹ˆ, ์ด๋•Œ์˜ ๊นจ๋‹ฌ์Œ๋งˆ์ €๋„ ์ €์˜ ํ‰๊ท ์„ ์กฐ๊ธˆ์€ ๋†’์ธ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ด์š” :)

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We are not going in circles, we are going upwards. The path is a spiral; we have already climbed many steps.Hermann Hesse, Siddhartha

์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ฒ˜์Œ ๋“ค์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ ๊ฝค๋‚˜ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์™€๋‹ฟ์•„์„œ, ๋Š˜ ๋งˆ์Œ์— ์ƒˆ๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฌธ์žฅ์ด์—์š”. ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์›์„ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๋ฉฐ ์ œ์ž๋ฆฌ๊ฑธ์Œ์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ๋‚˜์„ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ณ„์† ์˜ฌ๋ผ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด์š”. (๋น„๋ก, ๋•Œ๋กœ๋Š” ์ œ์ž๋ฆฌ๊ฑธ์Œ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋Š๊ปด์งˆ์ง€๋ผ๋„์š”ใ…Žใ…Ž) ๋„๋Œ์ดํ‘œ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ผ์ƒ์ด์ง€๋งŒ, ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์กฐ๊ธˆ์”ฉ ๊พธ์ค€ํžˆ ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€๋ฉฐ ์„ฑ์žฅํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ชจ๋‘๋Š” ์ž๊ธฐ ์ž์‹ ๋งŒ์˜ ํ‰๊ท ์„ ์กฐ๊ธˆ์”ฉ ์กฐ๊ธˆ์”ฉ ๋†’์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์š”. ์ €๋Š” ์ขŒ์ ˆ ์†์—์„œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์ดˆ๋ก์„ ๋งˆ๊ฐํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ๋•๋ถ„์— ํ•™์ˆ ์  ๊ธ€์“ฐ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ˜น๋…ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์—ฐ์Šตํ•ด๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž๋กœ์„œ ์กฐ๊ธˆ์€ ์„ฑ์žฅํ–ˆ์„๊ฑฐ์—์š”. ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฐœํŒ ์‚ผ์•„ ์–ด๋–ค ๋‚ ์€ ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๊ธ€์ด ์ž˜ ์จ์งˆ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ €์˜ ํ‰๊ท ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹จ์ •์ง“๋Š” ์‹ค์ˆ˜๋Š” ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„๊ฑฐ์—์š”. ๋‹ค๋งŒ, ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์˜ ๋นˆ๋„๋ฅผ ๋†’์ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•  ๋ฟ!

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ํ‰๊ท  ํšŒ๊ท€ ์ด๋ก ๊ณผ ๋‚˜์„ ํ˜• ๊ณ„๋‹จ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ถ์˜ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด๋‹ˆ, ๋งˆ์Œ์— ์—ฌ์œ ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์•„ ๋ฌด์ฒ™ ๊ธฐ๋ปค์–ด์š”. ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋Š๊ผˆ๋˜ ์ด ํ™€๊ฐ€๋ถ„ํ•จ์„ ์ด์›ƒ๋ถ„๋“ค๋„ ๋Š๋ผ์‹œ๊ธธ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ฉฐ ์ด ๊ธ€์„ ๋‚จ๊ฒจ๋ณด์•„์š”. ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ, ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ฟฐ๋šซ์–ด๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ์„ ์กฐ๋“ค์˜ ์†๋‹ด์„ ๋‚จ๊ฒจ์š”.

ํ‰๊ท  ํšŒ๊ท€ ํ˜„์ƒ์€ ๋งŽ์€ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ํ† ๋Œ€๋กœ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•  ๋•Œ ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๊ฐ’์ด ํ‰๊ท ์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์›Œ์ง€๋ ค๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ, ์ƒ๊ด€์ด ์™„์ „ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์–ด๋– ํ•œ ๊ด€๊ณ„์—์„œ๋„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ํŠน์„ฑ์ด๋‹ค. (์ค‘๋žต) ์˜›๋‚  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋‹ค ํ‰๊ท  ํšŒ๊ท€๋ฅผ ์ž˜ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ "์˜ค๋ฅด๋ง‰์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉด ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋ง‰์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฒ•"์ด๋ผ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ "๋น„ ์˜ค๋Š” ๋‚ ์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉด ํ•ด ๋œจ๋Š” ๋‚ ๋„ ์žˆ๋‹ค"๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋Š”๊ฐ€. ์–ธ์  ๊ฐ„ ํ‰๊ท ์œผ๋กœ ํšŒ๊ท€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์„ฑ๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ผํฌ์ผ๋น„ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ง๋ผ๋Š” ์กฐ์–ธ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๊ฒ ๋Š”๊ฐ€.๊ฐ์ • ๋…์žฌ ไธญ

์˜ค๋Š˜์€ ๋ถ€๋”” ํ‰๊ท  ์ด์ƒ์˜ ํ•˜๋ฃจ์˜€๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ผ์š”. ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š๋”๋ผ๋„, ๋˜ ์ข‹์€ ํ•˜๋ฃจ๊ฐ€ ์˜ฌํ…Œ๋‹ˆ ์กฐ๊ธˆ๋งŒ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ ค๋ณด์•„์š”.


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